'Labour has blown its first year in office': What Reform's local election gains really tell us

How much meaning can you take from six votes? That’s the margin by which Reform has won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, seizing the seat from Labour and overturning a 14,700-vote majority

It’s the eye-catching result in a set of elections across the country which have seen Nigel Farage’s party gain both seats and vote count. With Andrea Jenkyns’ victory in Greater Lincolnshire, Reform has won its first mayoral election. As of Friday morning, it had won 39% of the vote share, with both Labour and the Conservatives suffering.

The early results prompted one expert to tell Big Issue “Labour has blown its first year in office”. But what does it mean for the country – and for the direction of the government?

Reform has tapped into frustrations, and the results send a message that people who want Reform-style policies will vote for Reform, said David Moon, head of politics at the University of Bath.

“Labour has blown its first year in office,” said Moon. “Vague promises of change at the election have led to little real improvement in government, and where major policies have been introduced – like cuts to disability benefits and winter fuel payments – they’re hardly what people hoped for. Labour inherited a country in a terrible state but they have failed to offer voters a vision towards better times.”

As the results rolled in, Labour argued the votes reflected fury at the state of the country – carried over from the Tories – and the fact the public expected things to change faster, acknowledging benefits of its policies were not being felt.

The results cement Reform as a proper force in electoral politics and raised big questions for how Labour defends itself from now on, said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.

“It suggests that Reform seem able to convert their opinion poll results into actual seats, albeit on a low turnout and with both of what we traditionally think of as the two ‘main’ parties phenomenally unpopular at the moment,” Bale told Big Issue.

“What really matters, perhaps, is how those parties now try to slow Farage’s momentum – do they continue to play on Reform’s territory by talking tough on immigration and rowing back on net zero, or do they try and project themselves as more positive forces, focused on delivering solutions rather than moaning endlessly about how Britain is broken? Sadly, I predict they will go for the first strategy over the second – a fool’s errand but they can’t seem to help themselves.”

Despite Farage’s jubilation, the results will also bring a test for Reform, said Keiran Pedley, director of politics at the polling firm Ipsos.

“Reform UK look like the real deal this morning. That doesn’t mean that Nigel Farage can start measuring the curtains to Number 10, but their increase in support across the country and narrow victory in Runcorn lends credibility to his claim that Reform are now the main opposition to Labour,” said Pedley.

“That said, with increased support comes scrutiny. Where they do win, they will need to show they can deliver the change their voters want to see from them.”

Experts warned there are only so many lessons we can learn from local elections – with turnout lower than general elections and this round of polls held in largely Conservative areas. But Moon warned a greater challenge for Labour lays down the road.

“Looking ahead to next year, today’s results paint a particularly stark picture for Labour in Wales, historically their strongest heartland. Starmer’s government has offered little to Wales who will be hardest hit by the disability benefit cuts,” said Moon.

“Labour has a year to show the Welsh that a century of loyalty wasn’t misplaced. If it doesn’t, finishing behind both Reform and Plaid in the next Senedd election is a real risk.”

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