What does the UK's current energy mix look like today – and in the future?

The terrifying spike in energy prices has switched us all on to thinking more about where the electricity we use comes from and why exactly it costs so much. If the UK is to seriously tackle the climate crisis, we need a renewables revolution. So what does our current energy mix look like, and what shifts are possible to make sure the power stays on but the cost to ourselves and the planet decreases?

How does the UK compare?

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2020, renewables accounted for 43.8 per cent of the electricity generation mix in the UK. This is a significant increase from just 5.8 per cent in 2005. However, when compared to similar countries, the UK lags behind. For example, in 2020, renewables accounted for 68.5 per cent of electricity generation in Norway, 59.5 per cent in Sweden, 57.5 per cent in Austria, and 50.7 per cent in Portugal.

The UK’s reliance on fossil fuels is a legacy lingering from the industrial revolution which powered the development of the West. The good news is developing nations are skipping the heavy-polluting stage and embracing cleaner and more efficient energy production. For example, Kenya is the world leader in solar panels per capita – over 30,000 small panels are sold there each year for as little as $100. Meanwhile, 90 per cent of Costa Rica’s energy is produced by renewable energy. Even China, which releases over 30 per cent of the world’s CO2 emissions, is considered the world leader when it comes to renewables. It is expected to exceed its target of 33 per cent of energy generated by renewables by 2025.

Where electricity on the national grid came from in March 2023

In March 2023, forty-seven per cent of our power came from zero carbon sources (including nuclear). A new record was set on March 13, when 67.4 per cent of energy on the national grid came from wind. For the month of March 2023, here’s a breakdown of how the UK’s electricity supply was generated.

How renewable energy production is evolving

In 2022, clean energy (renewables plus nuclear) produced 39 per cent of global electricity, while wind and solar produced 12 per cent of the global output. Compare this to 2018, when just 33.3 per cent came from renewables. In 2010, the figure was only seven per cent.

The price of renewable energy is rapidly falling, and solar costs have dropped globally by 90 per cent since 2009. 

Technologies are developing quickly. For example, floating offshore wind or combining solar panels with crop production. Developments in thin-film solar cells could make rooftop solar cheaper and easier. Plug-in balcony solar also opens up solar for flat owners and tenants. Rooftop wind is developing quickly too, with bladeless, so-called ‘motionless’ units being able to produce 50 per cent more energy than rooftop solar panels costing the same price.

And then there are heat pumps, which capture heat from the air or underground and bring it inside using a refrigerant to increase the pressure, while raising the temperature (this process uses less electricity than the equivalent that is then produced). There are now heat pumps on the market that match the temperature of gas boilers. 

The UK can easily provide all the energy it needs (including for transport, heating, and industry) through renewable energy.

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What are the drawbacks?

Technologies may not be developing quickly enough to catch up with the scale of the climate crisis.

• Offshore wind takes time – they are massive turbines, and the installation is less easy than on land. The UK is aiming at 50GW by 2030, which is optimistic. But it is still cheaper than making electricity from gas. 
• Onshore wind turbines can be constructed faster, but planning is effectively blocked in England and held up across other parts of the UK due to an old and under-invested electricity grid. 
• Heat pump installations could be scaled up quickly. The UK is lagging behind other European countries, such as Norway where two-thirds of households have heat pumps, including all new houses. In Italy alone, 500,000 heat pump units were sold in 2022.

The speed of deployment is also about skills (particularly for heat pumps). As many countries aim for net zero, there will be constraints on availability because of manufacturing capacity and associated infrastructure. Policy and regulations need to be revised, for example, to make grants available to install greener technology.

What about the industries left behind?

Good news! The government is well on top of this. In 2020 they announced a new Green Jobs Taskforce with the ambition to support transition between existing industries and a low carbon economy. The plan promised two million green jobs by 2030. So that’s all in hand, brilliant.

Except, as The Big Issue found, there was no definition of what a ‘green job’ actually is. On top of that, of the 68,000 jobs the government claimed last year had been “created and supported” or were “in the pipeline”, thousands were apportioned to schemes which no longer exist. 

The latest figures on green jobs from the ONS only measure ‘green’ employment up to 2019, and show that there were 202,100 full-time jobs in the UK low-carbon and renewable energy economy prior to the pandemic. This figure is reduced from the 235,900 green jobs recorded in 2014.

There are retraining schemes for people from carbon-intensive industries, but this is seen as controversial by many. Unions are worried about members losing their jobs. And there is a geographical and class divide when it comes to who is impacted.

In some of Britain’s poorest areas, more than 40 per cent of jobs are in high-emitting industries, compared to less than 25 per cent in London. Over half of these jobs are concentrated in the Midlands, north of England and Scotland, where an estimated 10 million jobs could be threatened as the country aims for its 2050 net zero targets.

In response, Scotland’s new First Minister, Humza Yousaf, appointed Màiri McAllan to his cabinet as Secretary for Net Zero and Just Transition, with a remit covering sustainable development, environmental protection, the low carbon economy and delivering green jobs for the future.