The UK's green transition will happen – with or without Sunak's government
When Rishi Sunak reneged on his climate policy promises last year, he put himself at odds with industry leaders and experts. As the devolved nations power ahead with their own green transition plans, it will be left to the next elected government to catch up
by: Sam Gelder
22 Apr 2024
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“Pragmatism, not ideology,” the prime minister emphasised as he announced a U-turn on the Conservative Party’s major green policies last September.
The plans, which focused on pushing back the 2030 deadline for selling new petrol and diesel cars and delaying the phasing out of gas boilers was, Rishi Sunak insisted, about doing the sensible thing. It was about not forcing hard-up households to shell out for new kit during a cost of living crisis. It was about “sensible green leadership”.
Green campaigners didn’t agree, of course. But neither did scientists. Nor the car industry. Nor the energy sector. Though Sunak was keen to stress his government’s commitment to meeting its legally binding target to reach net zero by 2050 – he mentioned it 17 times in his speech – experts rounded on him.
“It’s not pragmatic, it’s pathetic,” said professor Dave Reay, executive director of the University of Edinburgh’s Climate Change Institute. “This rolling back on emissions cuts for short-term political gain will undermine the transition to net zero and with it the future opportunities, prosperity and safety of the entire country.”
Professor Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, said it sent the “wrong signals to businesses looking to invest” in the green transition. “It is the opposite of good economics,” he said.
Car manufacturers who’ve spent big investing in electric vehicles to prepare for the 2030 deadline were angry. Lisa Brankin, the chair of Ford UK, said: “Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.”
E.On, too, said easing the requirements to replace gas boilers with heat pumps would mean “missing out on the regeneration this ambition brings”.
Sunak speaking at COP28 in Dubai last year. Image: Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo
Sunak defended his policies by talking about how far ahead the UK was compared to other major economies on the road to net zero. The country has seen the fastest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the G7, down almost 50% since 1990 to 2020. But that’s mainly because of progress made decades ago in transitioning away from coal. And it’s only half the job; his speech was delivered three months after the government’s own climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee, handed him a damning report that found basically all of its targets were being missed.
In the wake of this speech, Sunak announced the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, aiming to “max out” oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. He said the legislation, which would introduce a new licensing system, will be “good for our energy security”, adding it was more carbon-intensive to ship oil and gas from other countries. He also said it would protect jobs.
Again, few agreed. Chris Skidmore, a former Tory energy minister, even resigned. He said the bill was “on the wrong side of a future economy that will be founded on renewable and clean industries, and not fossil fuels”.
Every one of the critics included here mentions the impact on jobs and the green economy.
Yet the Tory party, ‘the party of business’, can’t see it. Or doesn’t want to.
A report by Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC) also suggests the Tories are choosing to ignore the reality that is the green transition.
Its 2022 study on the Energy Transition and Jobs was published amid soaring energy costs, which the government blamed on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In it, Stuart Wyness, the chief financial officer of drilling giant Stena, told researchers: “Usually an energy crisis would lead to a huge asset push and this is not currently the case. Businesses are not wanting to get too committed to purchasing new drilling capital.”
“The energy industry is evolving and our role in renewables and emerging energies is expanding at pace,” said Steve Wisely of offshore energy company Subsea 7.
With leadership from the government and businesses, mass job losses caused by the switch to green energy would be avoided, PwC concluded. While a small part of the oil and gas workforce will be out of a job due to the non-transferability of skills, most people will find the ‘greening’ of their jobs provides extensive career opportunities in the low-carbon and renewables industry, it said.
“As such, the growth of the renewables or low-carbon sectors does not necessarily constitute a direct substitution with oil and gas, but instead demonstrates the ongoing evolution of the energy sector.”
Culture wars
All this might lead you to think that, despite what the PM says, he is very much playing politics with his green policies. After all, Scotland has a ‘just transition’ minister and a strategy to ensure a fair process. Wales is consulting on a new framework for one. Sunak has a “plan for drivers” and a pledge to end “anti-car measures”.
Last month, Green Party MP Caroline Lucas accused the government of stoking a culture war on climate issues by calling for more investment in new gas-fired power plants ahead of the general election.
Shadow climate change minister Alan Whitehead also said the government was trying to “conjure a culture war” with its energy policy. But his party, keen to avoid getting embroiled in said culture war, has U-turned on its own £28 billion ‘green prosperity plan’ – although leader Keir Starmer has still pledged to create 500,000 green jobs.
Workers in the UK are on board with the green transition. Industry leaders are ready and waiting. Whichever party forms the next government will need to act fast.
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