Revealed: The areas where more than half of disabled people could lose their benefits

More than half of disabled people with daily living needs in parts of England and Wales could lose their benefits under the government’s welfare cuts, the Big Issue can reveal.

Analysis of data from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), which was published in response to a written parliamentary question from Liberal Democrat work and pensions spokesman Steve Darling, shows that at least half of all current claimants of the personal independence payment (PIP) daily living allowance in ten constituencies could lose this benefit under the government’s plans, which MPs are set to vote on next month.

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These include highly deprived Labour seats such as Tipton and Wednesbury and Wolverhampton South East – the constituency of senior cabinet minister Pat McFadden. Meanwhile the least affected constituencies tend to be those with much lower deprivation levels such as Guildford – although even here, more than a third of PIP daily living claimants are at risk from the cuts. 

The most exposed constituency is Boston and Skegness, where 52% of claimants are at risk. The seat is represented in parliament by Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice. Polling for the Big Issue recently found that 68% of Reform voters believe Labour is failing on poverty.  

The Big Issue’s analysis of the DWP dataset, which is limited to England and Wales, shows what proportion of PIP daily living claimants in each constituency scored under four points in every part of their PIP assessment – which, under the government’s plans, would render them ineligible for the PIP daily living allowance when their claims are next reviewed.

The most exposed constituencies are:

• Boston and Skegness – 52% of PIP daily living claimants scored under four points in all daily living categories in their PIP assessment
• Tipton and Wednesbury – 52%
• Torfaen – 51%
• Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney – 51%
• Smethwick – 51%
• Cannock Chase – 51%
• Wolverhampton South East – 51%
• Bolsover – 51%
• South Holland and The Deepings – 50%
• Rhondda and Ogmore – 50%

The regional variations are down to how much of each seat’s PIP caseload is made up of people with disabilities that have been heavily targeted by the planned cuts – arthritis, back pain, chronic pain and other musculoskeletal conditions. These four categories make up 37% of Boston and Skegness’ PIP daily living caseload, compared to 19% in Guildford.

The DWP’s dataset is detailed, showing what proportion of current PIP daily living claimants with each type of disability scored under four points in all daily living assessment categories, putting them at risk from Labour’s plans:

• There are 97 seats where at least 80% of PIP daily living claimants with arthritis are at risk, peaking at 87% in Derbyshire Dales
• Almost three-quarters of claimants with cardiovascular disease in North Cotswolds could lose out under the cuts
• More than 70% of claimants with multiple sclerosis and neuropathic diseases in Lewisham East and Sheffield Heeley are exposed to the rule change

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has published an interactive breakdown of the figures by constituency, though not including figures for the overall PIP caseload in each seat.

If approved by parliament, the PIP assessment changes would take effect from November 2026 for new claimants, who for the first time would have to score four points in at least one ‘daily living’ category in the assessment, as well as scoring eight points across all daily living categories, to qualify for the PIP daily living allowance.

Existing claimants will not be affected immediately once the changes take effect, but when their claim comes up for periodic review they will need to satisfy the four-point rule in order to keep their daily living allowance.

There are two main ways existing claimants at risk of having their benefits cut might avoid this. First, if they are above state pension age by the time their review would have fallen due, the DWP says their claim will not be subject to a full review. 

Second, the Office for Budget Responsibility – Britain’s independent financial watchdog – forecasts that many of those potentially hit by the new rules will be able to adjust their claim to hit four points in one category and keep their benefits, or successfully challenge the DWP on appeal. However, there is great uncertainty about the extent to which people will be able to do this, especially if they do not have support from a benefits advisor. 

The PIP mobility allowance is unaffected by the new ‘four point rule’. 

The DWP claimed that this data is partial and “doesn’t reflect that the majority of people who are currently getting PIP will continue to receive it”.

A spokesperson added: “We will never compromise on protecting people who need our support, and our reforms will mean the social security system will always be there for those who will never be able to work, and that their income is protected.

“We have also announced a review of the PIP assessment, and we will be working with disabled people and key organisations representing them to consider how best to do this as we deliver on our Plan for Change.”

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