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Housing

Ending post-Grenfell cladding crisis could take until 2035 and beyond: 'Unacceptably slow'

Removing dangerous cladding off buildings is projected to take until 2035 – 18 years after the Grenfell fire – and could take even longer as government races to build 1.5 million homes

Grenfell tower

It could be two decades after the Grenfell disaster before the crisis the fire uncovered is finally fixed. Image: ChiralJon / Flickr

The Labour government has been urged to set a target date to end the post-Grenfell building safety crisis amid warnings that it could take almost two decades after the fire to remove dangerous cladding from affected buildings.

Independent spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO) said progress on removing combustible cladding off buildings has been “slow” in the years since the deadly fire killed 72 people in 2017.

So far, 4,771 buildings have been identified for remediation but it is taking longer than expected for the government to identify the remainder.

Some may never be identified, according to the NAO, with a potential 7,200 buildings – an estimated 60% – buildings still to be earmarked for remediation work. Hundreds of thousands of people are still caught up in the building safety crisis, experiencing financial and emotional distress while wondering if their buildings will be made safe.

Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) modelling currently indicates that it will take up until 2035 for completing cladding remediation.

But the NAO report suggested competing goals – including Labour’s bid to build 1.5 million homes in the next five years – as well as costs and uncertainty of the scale of the task could mean the crisis takes even longer to resolve.

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The watchdog insisted that published milestones could be key to speed up progress and Giles Grover from End Our Cladding Scandal told the Big Issue that it is something campaigners have been calling for over the past two years.

“I think it’s an underestimate that it is going to take until 2035,” said Grover.

“There are a lot of unknown buildings out there, especially the mid-rise ones, and it’s just the cost of it as well. We’ve always known it’s going to cost a lot more and the government needs to ensure that industry is made to pay.

“The wider point of this is that the government now needs to take control of this because it’s done a bit in terms of funding and the previous government changed the law but after two and a half years, it’s not working.

“They need to make sure there are deadlines, which is what the report is calling for and we’ve been asking for for two and a half years, if not longer. We’re hopeful this new government will bring the change we need but the problem is the last three or four months of the new Labour government, we just feel like we’re going backwards.”

The Labour government pledged £1bn to tackle the cladding crisis at last week’s budget and has pledged to consider all the NAO report’s recommendations.

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The Public Accounts Committee has also launched an inquiry into the government’s spending on the remediation of dangerous cladding.

Building safety minister Alex Norris said: “The pace of remediation to make homes safe has been unacceptably slow. This government is taking action – meeting our commitment to invest £5.1bn to remove dangerous cladding and making sure those responsible pay for the rest.

“This government will protect leaseholders and empower regulators to take enforcement action against those building owners who fail to act. Since coming into office, we have ramped up work with local authorities and regulators to speed up remediation and we will set out a Remediation Acceleration Plan soon.”

The NAO said there has been significant progress towards remediating high-rise buildings since it last investigated the cladding crisis in 2020.

The government has significantly changed the types of buildings within scope for its programmes, and its approach to remediation, as the scale and impact of the cladding problem has become clearer. It now has programmes to address dangerous cladding for all the estimated 9,000 to 12,000 buildings over 11 metres it considers need remediating. 

Of the 4,771 buildings in the government’s portfolio – the equivalent of 258,000 homes – remediation work has yet to start on over half, is in progress for a fifth, with around one third complete. Of all 9,000-12,000 potentially in scope of remediation, work is complete for only up to 16%. 

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The NAO report found, in total, it will cost an estimated £16.6bn to fix unsafe cladding on all buildings over 11 metres in England. 

MHCLG expects to provide £9.1bn of this, with the remainder funded by developers who have agreed to remediate buildings they developed, private owners or social housing providers. 

Taxpayer contributions are currently capped at £5.1bn over the long-term with the government department planning to recoup £700m from refunds from developers for remediation works already funded through taxes.

An additional £3.4bn is expected to be raised by the new Building Safety Levy developers are set to pay on new developments. But the government is yet to confirm payment mechanisms with the levy expected to be introduced next autumn at the earliest.

More than 500,000 was also lost to fraud from one applicant through the Building Safety Fund in 2023-24.

MHCLG also acknowledged concerns that wider government housing priorities, from decarbonisation to building new homes, may also overlap with efforts to tackle dangerous cladding.

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But the department may also gather data about buildings on a national scale to support efforts to reach net zero, according to the watchdog.

Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, said: “Seven years on from the Grenfell Tower fire, there has been progress, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding the number of buildings needing remediation, costs, timelines and recouping public spending. There is a long way to go before all affected buildings are made safe, and risks MHCLG must address if its approach is to succeed. 

“Putting the onus on developers to pay and introducing a more proportionate approach to remediation should help to protect taxpayers’ money. Yet it has also created grounds for dispute, causing delays. 

“To stick to its £5.1bn cap in the long run, MHCLG needs to ensure that it can recoup funds through successful implementation of the proposed Building Safety Levy.”

As for Grover and the hundreds of thousands of others caught up in the crisis, the toll on mental health continues.

“We can talk about thousands of buildings, we can talk about billions of pounds but we need to just keep bringing it back and remembering that it’s actually people who are living in unsafe homes,” Grover added.

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